Over the next few days, we're in for some interesting weather developments. Currently, our satellite imagery reveals a thick blanket of clouds enveloping the majority of our region, with radar detecting isolated pockets of precipitation within these clouds. Rainfall observations show varying amounts, with Central Oregon receiving up to 0.10 inches, the Blue Mountains about 0.05 inches, and 0.01-0.03 inches in the Gorge and lower Columbia Basin.
Our short-term weather models are aligned in their prediction of an upper-level low positioned over British Columbia and a deep trough moving in off the coast of Oregon. This trough is responsible for the current precipitation and cooler temperatures. The highest chances of wetting rains, between 30-60%, are expected in Central Oregon and the Ochoco John Day Highlands. Probability of more than 0.10 inches of rain stands at 60-80% along the peaks of the Oregon Cascades, gradually decreasing to 10-20% along the eastern mountains.
Today, a few isolated areas may experience below-seasonal average temperatures, but most of the region should see highs between 55-60 degrees.
As we move into Saturday, the trough deepens and shifts southward toward California. This setup brings in southeasterly flow, potentially introducing more moisture. There's a 20-40% chance of 0.25 inches of rain along the Oregon Cascades' peaks, with 10-30% probabilities for the eastern mountains and highlands. The trough's continued deepening leads to a cooler Central Oregon and eastern region while the western part warms with the onset of an upper-level ridge.
Sunday marks the return of drier and warmer conditions. The ridge pushes over the Cascades, limiting wrap-around moisture to the far eastern part of Wallowa County, where there's a 10-20% chance of 0.25 inches of additional rain. Elsewhere, it should be dry with temperatures warming.
In the long-term forecast from Monday to Friday, we expect a transition from the current upper-level trough to a building ridge of high pressure. The trough's center moves from western Montana into the Great Basin, while a ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. This northwest flow brings some moisture, resulting in a few showers primarily along the Cascade crest and eastern mountains on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, the ridge dominates, with temperatures returning to above normal levels. So, stay tuned for changing weather patterns as we transition from trough to ridge.
The KIMA/KEPR Forecast Team